Putin: Direct war with NATO-US?

Putin: Direct war with NATO-US?

 Operation Plan (OPLAN / Operation Plan), the usual mission plan is made complete and detailed to carry out joint military operations. There is also the mention of the 5 laws of war, where the description in military missions is usually carried out in plans a-d,etc. For military purposes along with distinction, proportionality, humanity (sometimes called unnecessary suffering), and honor (sometimes called chivalry) are the five most frequently cited principles of international humanitarian law governing the legal use of force in armed conflict. William Branum, a Retired Navy SEAL, USA once wrote, among other things: I think the first question is what is military mission planning? When we plan our mission at SEAL Team, we use a simple six-step formula to achieve success. 

1. Mission: is our ultimate goal and drives everything else we do. The mission must be clearly defined and understood prior to planning. 

2. Mission Planning: This is where we are required to find the best way to achieve our goals. Plan how we will get to where we want to be. Plan for the eventuality, because hardly any plan goes perfectly according to plan. Think conventionally, then unconventional. What could be wrong? What if? What if? What if? 

3. Briefing the Plan: Always provide a mission statement so there is no confusion. Then a briefing on the actions needed to complete the mission, then a briefing on the roles, responsibilities, and expectations of all members. By telling people directly what is expected of them, there is never any confusion or miscommunication. Finally, make sure contingencies and backup plans are covered. 

4. Dirt Dive: This is perhaps the most important and most overlooked part of mission planning. Practice the action phase of the mission, then practice contingency and contingency plans. If it's a military operation, the team will practice things that seem simple but can get messy if we don't do them like getting in and out of vehicles in a certain order, making radio calls, or other communication practices so everyone knows what they're going to hear. on a mission. If we practice "simple basics," our team will have a foundation to lean on when things go wrong. There is a high chance that we will have to use one or more of our backup plans. Try to keep it simple to execute too.

 5. Execution: This is where all the hard work and preparation comes into play.

6. After Action Review: After the mission is complete, the team comes back together to discuss what went right, what went wrong, what no one could predict, how to fix the problem and how to do it better next time.

From the War Room to the Council Room, I've found that this process is critical to organizational success. William Branum said. So if you look at Putin, who has been eating salt and water for a long time in the military and intelligence world, before carrying out the attack on Ukraine on 24 February, we can be sure that he and his team have made a well-thought-out plan for what will be faced in their mission for all the possibilities that will happen in the future.

The Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation released a message on Telegram that the Ukrainian Armed Forces sent two helicopter gunships carrying heavy offensive weapons to "illegally infiltrate Russian airspace". In the Russo-Ukrainian war, Russia recently suffered heavy losses thanks to Ukraine getting US assistance. This was mainly reflected in three aspects of the defeat: First, with the support of the US intelligence and command systems, Russia's military operations in Ukraine faced great resistance, and several wars that could have been won quickly became protracted. For example, in Mariupol, in the Donetsk region of eastern Ukraine, Ukrainian soldiers guard a Soviet-era steel plant that can carry small nuclear bombs, but have never been fired. Although the Ukrainian army could not last long, but the Russian army also suffered a lot here, and Donetsk could not be won for a long time, thus hampering the Russian process of taking control of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions. 

This is clearly not profitable for Russia politically. Second, the 12,000-ton Russian cruiser "Moskva" was sunk by the so-called Ukrainian coast-to-ship missile "Neptune". This 10,000-ton cruiser is worth at least hundreds of millions of dollars. For the Russian military, whose navy is already weak, this heavy loss would be a major blow to the morale of the Russian army. The Ukrainian surface-to-ship missile "Neptune" was only "developed" in July last year, which is likely to be labeled "Made in Ukraine" by the US. In retaliation Russia just hit the ships on the coast that arrived at the Ukrainian "manufacturer", where they were also carrying out repairs. But this news is still doubtful because, according to the Russian side, it was caused by a fire on board. Russia's defense ministry has released very little information about how the ship sank, claiming damage to the ship caused it to occur in an accident on board. The Ukrainian government, along with western intelligence officials, said the ship was hit by several Ukrainian anti-ship missiles.
"Apparently one or two missiles entered the ship just below after a pair of Vulcan anti-ship missiles," wrote former Admiral Chris Parry: "This appears to have been of major internal damage and was caused by the impact of two missiles ... causing the propellant fuel to leak. which further ignited the fire within the ship by spreading horizontally along the deck and through the broken bulkheads." HI Sutton, a naval analyst and author, wrote that "the damage does not rule out a missile strike, and it remains a possible cause. Possible impact marks on the side of the hull are visible below where the fire was. But this needs closer inspection to determine if it was caused by missiles, 
or just fire damage." (The Guardians).
Third, mainland Russia has been attacked many times in recent days. Since late March, the Russian-Ukrainian border has been attacked many times by the Ukrainian army. According to records, it has been attacked at least six times. according to the latest reports, on the 14th local time, the Klimovsky District in Bryan Oblast, Russia entered a state of emergency. The reason is, the area was attacked by Ukrainian helicopters that day, injuring 8 people and damaging more than 100 houses. In addition, Russia's Federal Security Service said on the same day that the Novyurkovich border checkpoint in the Bryansk region in southwest Russia was fired upon by mortar shells from the Ukrainian side. The shooting damaged two civilian vehicles and injured several people. The border checkpoints are continuing normal operations, and the Ukrainian side has not yet responded to the issue. In addition, the governor of the Bryansk region said on the same day that Ukrainian soldiers also opened fire on houses in the Klimovsk district of the Russian border region, causing casualties. The shooting caused two houses to catch fire and were extinguished. Schools on the coast must also be closed and temporarily closed. The Russian Investigative Committee said on April 14 that the Ukrainian army used two helicopters equipped with heavy offensive weapons to illegally enter Russian airspace and carried out at least 6 attacks on the Klimovsky people's settlement. 

From this it appears that the US has found an air defense gap in Russia's homeland, so that with the support of the US intelligence system, the Ukrainian army in eastern Ukraine can not only fight Russia in eastern Ukraine, but now also create pressure on Russia, and begin to carry out attacks in the region. mainland Russia. While this kind of blow would not have an essential effect on the war situation, it would certainly put more pressure on the Russian government politically. The defeat in these three aspects has made Putin quite angry. As a result Russia did two things: First, bombed cities like Kyiv. According to Russian newspaper network news on April 15 local time, from late at night 14 to the early hours of April 15 local time, several violent explosions occurred in Kyiv and its surroundings, and there were power cuts in many places in the area.
According to reports, Russian State Duma lawmaker Sheremet Mikhail Sergeyevich earlier said it was time for a counterattack against the decision-making control center in Kyiv after Ukrainian forces launched an offensive on Russian territory. The Russian Ministry of Defense issued an announcement on April 15 local time saying that the Russian army used "Calibre" missiles to hit military targets located on the outskirts of Kiev, except for Kyiv, which was hit by air strikes in the morning on April 15 local time was the southern city of Kherson, the eastern city of Kharko, the western city of Ivano-Frankkovsk were bombed.
Regarding the Russian military operation this time, Ukrainian officials have not yet provided a response. 

According to an announcement by the Russian Ministry of Defense on April 15, the Russian army will increase the number and scale of missile attacks on military facilities in Kyiv. Why did Russia suddenly attack so many cities? This appears to be in retaliation for the Ukrainian attack on mainland Russia, and this signal suggests that the Russian army may step up its military offensive on more facilities in Ukraine in the following days. The next concern is whether Russia will use bigger and more lethal weapons to carry out military strikes against key targets in major Ukrainian cities like Kyiv? In fact, through this Russian military operation, we can see that the Russian military precision-guided weapons are not enough. At the same time, there are also no medium-range ballistic missiles that seriously limit the combat effectiveness of the Russian army. In the view of military observers, if Russia had a large number of short and medium-range ballistic missiles, cruise missiles or a large number of rocket launchers with a high-precision range of 400 kilometers like China, the battle would be much easier. Unfortunately the Russian military is not strong enough in this regard. (That's probably why from the start of the war the US threatened China not to ally with Russia in this war?). Therefore, Russia inevitably has to deploy its large stockpile of tank defense equipment to attack, only that means it will take more time to fight in this battle, and of course more people will be killed. But for Russia, this war may cost a lot less than many think. Why? The answer is very simple. Because Russia has a lot of tanks, armored vehicles, artillery, etc. All these traditional weapons are in stock. Russia has a large stockpile of this equipment and artillery shells from the Soviet era.
If these stocks are not released, they will cost a lot of maintenance to maintain, otherwise if used for combat, it becomes the most economical for Russia. 

So according to military observers in this case there is no need to worry that Russia will run out of stock and capabilities, because they have too much conventional equipment and artillery shells. (Count for laundry). So we can imagine, there is nothing for Russia to worry about if this battle will take longer. Even for the need for energy (fuel) produced domestically in Russia itself, the cost and cost is very low, so there is nothing to worry about. Given that Ukraine is at Russia's doorstep, war if it is to plunge Russia into the mire of war compared to the EU, it is the EU that is more worried. Furthermore, it is confirmed in the following days that Russia will step up its attacks on Ukraine, but the main target is still eastern Ukraine, so the decisive battle in eastern Ukraine seems not far off. (17-04-2022) Russia gave a stern warning to NATO and the US. 

Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov warned in an interview released on Wednesday (13 April) that Russia would treat arms convoys from NATO countries to Ukraine as soon as they arrived in the territory controlled by Kiev as targets for attack. Moscow's goal now is to show the US and its allies that Russia will use tough measures to respond to outside attempts to hinder its military operations in Ukraine.
"We warn that the transport of US and NATO weapons into the territory of Ukraine is considered a legitimate military target," he stressed. This is a very important signal, because in the past, NATO weapons assistance to Ukraine has not been attacked in its journey. For example, weapons transported by plane or ground vehicle to Ukraine were never attacked. Then the next situation will be different. 

Because US and NATO aid weapons to Ukraine caused heavy losses to Russian troops, Russia could not be polite. The reason why Russia left it earlier was because it did not want to directly break out a military conflict with NATO and the US. However, if a military strike is not carried out, NATO and US weapons will continue to be sent to Ukraine, which will bring heavy losses to Russia. So now there is no more tolerance. Ryabkov stated, "It is necessary to explain to the US and other Westerners to understand that special operations aimed at deterring us (Russian soldiers) that will cause great damage to the Russian contingents and formations in the 'Donetsk People's Republic' and 'Luhansk People's Republic' will be hit hard. ." Ryabkov said. 

This signal issued by Russia indicates that the Russian army will launch an attack on the NATO and US air and land transport convoys that are sending weapons. This would be a very strong signal that the war area could expand. At the same time, Russia also issued a stern warning to the US: "We call on the US and its allies to stop the militarization of Ukraine, and its irresponsible actions that have unpredictable regional and international security implications," the Washington Post quoted Russia's diplomatic records as saying. for the US.
US think-tank analysts said that after Russia launched special military operations in Ukraine on February 24, the US had provided Ukraine with 7,000 "Javelin" anti-tank missiles, which constituted a third of its total inventory, but this was actually only a small part of aid to Ukraine, aid other truly more important weapons come from NATO countries. 

Russia's stern warning to the US means that Russia is ready to further escalate the war situation and is ready to expand the war. In other words, Russia will not hesitate to directly confront NATO and also directly attack NATO's military aid sent to Ukraine. So, if Russia has upped the ante, will NATO continue to raise the stakes? If they did not dare, the Russian army's attack on Ukraine would be smooth. If the stakes are raised, the Russian army will certainly expand the scale of its military counterattack, including the possible use of "weapons of mass destruction". 

Will NATO really be able to contain it then? The decisive battle of the Russo-Ukrainian war in eastern Ukraine is about to begin. At the same time, the confrontation between Russia and NATO is likely to escalate. The scale of the war is not developing in a smaller direction, but towards a larger and wider scale. If NATO activities are stepped up further, the Russian military may significantly expand the scale of its military operations in Ukraine. At that time, the Russian military could expand its forces into western Ukraine to form a military confrontation with NATO in the future. Is NATO ready for this? This is really going to be a big deal, is NATO ready? It seems that Putin was prepared from the start.
Hopefully the war will end soon and peace will return.

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