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Source: Agency

The impact of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine

| 8.3.22 |
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Russian - Ukrainian

 Ukraine was still included in a vast area that was quite fertile and prosperous in Russia before the war occurred. Ukraine is also the largest producer of wheat, as well as an area with a lot of energy income when compared to other European countries. In the 17th century, relations between Russia and Ukraine were established, but then broke up in the 18th century after the autonomy of the Kazaki Hetmanat was abolished. The severance of relations between the two countries then improved again in World War I and after that they were joined in a country called the Soviet Union. 

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine actually started in 1917 during the Bolshevik Revolution. The Bolshevik Revolution was a revolution that took place with the aim of carrying out a coup against the Mensheviks who at that time succeeded in taking temporary power in Russia from the cadets who had a democratic or liberal constitutional flow. Previously, this revolution was also a continuation of the revolution that occurred in the same year, 1917 in February after Tsar Nicholas II, who was a cadet, was successfully deposed. In 2014, the conflict occurred in February involving the two countries along with pro-Russian and Belarusian countries. After Euromaidan, then centered on Crimea and the Donbass has been recognized internationally as a region of Ukraine. 

These areas then became conflicted due to the annexation of territories by Russia such as the Crimea area, then came another conflict in the Donbass, naval incidents, cyber wars, and political tensions. Over the conflicts that occurred, in 2015 even the Ukrainian Parliament almost cut off diplomatic relations with Russia and their relations deteriorated. In the end, Ukraine stopped military cooperation and arms exports to Russia and there was a conflict that led to an uprising. After that, there was a temporary ceasefire between the Ukrainian government and representatives of the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics and ended in January 2015. A new ceasefire was also agreed in mid-February 2015.
The armistice was called the Minsk Agreement or agreement, where the name of the agreement was taken from the Belarusian capital where it was signed. The agreement covers election procedures in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions as well as plans for the integration of the two regions into Ukraine. 

Minsk served as a reunification of Ukraine and restored its sovereignty. However, on the other hand there is Russia which shows that it still has a great influence on Ukraine especially with this conflict and the agreed ceasefire. Russia has managed to maintain its country's influence, so Ukraine is still not truly sovereign. Russia began to add troops by sending troops to the border area near Ukraine. The total number of troops added by Russia is 100,000 troops in November 2021. Ukraine has a desire to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization or NATO alliance. With Ukraine wanting to join NATO, Russia considers this a betrayal of its trust and history as well as a new threat. This situation has created tensions between Russia and Ukraine. Russia also put forward a demand to the west and stop all military activities around Eastern Europe, and asked NATO never to accept membership of the former Soviet Union. Relations between Russia and Belarus have also become a concern in itself because the two countries have often conducted joint military exercises.

 The joint military exercise was carried out with the pretext of resisting external aggression with defensive operations. Russian and Belarusian troops are training to protect the border and block arms and ammunition delivery channels. Because the west also analyzes the actions taken by Russia, they also send and place their troops in Eastern Europe and slowly add ships and fighter jets. Western countries began evacuating unimportant embassy staff from Ukrainian territory, and America was accompanied by sending troops of 8,500 troops on standby. On January 28, 2022, the President of Ukraine at that time asked the West not to create panic which would later have a bad impact, especially for the country's economy. At the United Nations session held on January 31, 2022, the United States and Russia debated the Ukraine crisis. The United States ambassador said that Russia's impending invasion would cause chaos and threaten global security. However, according to the Russian Ambassador at the time, he said that what the West and its allies said showed that their actions provoked war.
Russia is very sorry about the demands they made to the West and NATO is ignored and prefers to provoke them. This tension began to be felt and the situation began to lead to an unclear point. 

Then in 2022 in February, precisely on February 24, diplomatic relations between Russia and Ukraine were severed. So they do not have official diplomatic relations. Finally, on February 25, 2022, Russia announced that it would invade Ukraine via local Russian television broadcasts. If counted until March 7, 2022, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has been going on for 10 days. In this 10-day conflict, the two countries, namely Russia and Ukraine, have negotiated 2 times, but have yet to find an agreement. They also agreed to carry out further negotiations to conclude an agreement and end a conflict that could cost everyone. Global security is a very important thing because it involves the security of a country. The policies that will be taken will determine how the country behaves and behaves. Global security basically has a realist and liberal view. If the realist view is more influenced from the thoughts that come from England, and liberalism is more developed from German philosophy. 

The realist view views the very large role of the state and has conflicting relations with various parties in order to maintain power. The major interests of each country involved, including the United States and its allies, especially in oil and natural energy production in the targeted area, even include countries in the Middle East. The oil-producing countries seem to be the real victims of the interests of big countries. Russia's actions by conducting joint military cooperation and training with Belarus show how defensively it can be. Countries that do so seek greater power in order to protect themselves from external threats. They are more likely to balance the power or balance of power against their opponent. Furthermore, liberals emphasize more on the governance of relations between one country and another and one nation with another nation accompanied by the role of non-state actors to realize global security. The case is more cornering on politics, economy, culture, identity, and the history behind the conflict.

The existence of globalization affects global security, especially military globalization. Military cooperation between countries can be said to threaten and affect freedom in decision-making both institutionally and structurally. Countries that have more power will play a major role in making security decisions in organizations. In addition, the existence of an alliance really creates a dilemma for a country's security, especially how that country will carry out national defense. This explanation is then reflected in how NATO as a military and defense pact conducts and analyzes non-territory areas, creating a dilemma for Russia. The sending of troops to the border in Eastern Europe, Russia's demands, and NATO's support in arms for Ukraine are very much reflected in how military globalization is impacting. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine poses several threats that can affect global security, such as: 

• Cyber   Threats, In the era of globalization that puts forward technology as it is now, the virtual world or cyber becomes an important part because almost all of its activities use technology. If a country carries out a cyber attack, the impact and losses incurred are not small. What happened in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict was a lot of hacking, and the existing disinformation began to emerge and was massive.

 • Threat of world war III, the conflict that occurs will be feared to cause the seeds of the outbreak of a third world war because one of the countries in conflict, namely Russia has missiles and a strong military. While Ukraine has allies that allow Western countries to help. If only one of the countries that are members of NATO is attacked, other countries will also participate in the fight. This is in accordance with the NATO principle of Solidarity.

 • If Ukraine officially joins NATO, and Russia's allied countries other than Belarus, namely North Korea or China, join, it will lead to the outbreak of the 3rd world war.

The impact of the Russia-Ukraine war

• The impact of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine greatly affects the order both in the economic and social sectors.

 • Soaring oil and energy prices. The world oil price per 1 barrel after the conflict started even reached the price of 106.23 US dollars. This is because the conflict that has occurred has disrupted Russia's oil exports, where the country's contribution to global energy, especially European countries, is quite large and accounts for about 10 percent of global oil supply. The number of sanctions imposed, especially economic sanctions, has caused this activity to be very disrupted and lead to scarcity. 

• If the energy supply from Russia is cut off, the recovery of fossil energy and coal will return. This is evidenced by the re-existence of coal and the rising price in the global market with an increase of 38.22 percent in February and per 1 tonne at the level of 446 US dollars. 

• Economic recovery will be low, because oil and natural energy are very important commodities in the economic cycle in both developing and developed countries. The high price of oil will certainly affect production.

 • If commodity supply is hampered, export prices will automatically rise. The trade crisis will result in losses. However, this will be different if the country is a country that produces gold, silver, nickel and others, for that country it will be very profitable because of the high prices of their commodities. The difficulty of logistics delivery, especially in the Black Sea area, will be greatly hampered by the damage caused by war.





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